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一、经济学人杂志双语文章摘要

对未来的推测通常也有助于整理对当下的思考。本着这种精神,本专题报道将以提出一些与其主题有关的预测作结。一些预测是当前趋势的延伸。另一些带有更多猜想的成分,比如有关某种趋势可能会逆转,或朝着令人意想不到的方向发展。

二、经济学人杂志双语文章中英对照翻译

Doctor’s prescriptions 医生的处方

2020.12


How will asset management look in 2030? 
到2030年时资产管理是一幅什么景象【专题报道《资产管理》系列之五】 

经济学人双语杂志

“THERE ARE two kinds of forecasters,” said the economist John Kenneth Galbraith. “Those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know.” Asset management is a business built on the notion that the future is somewhat knowable, even if in large part it is not. So we must look for omens. Today’s “dishevelled” or “inchoate” borrower should not be expected to pay back its debts tomorrow, as The Economist warned in its editorial of March 28th 1868.
“有两种预测者,”经济学家约翰·肯尼思·加尔布雷思(John Kenneth Galbraith)说过,“那些不知道的人,和那些不知道自己不知道的人。”资产管理这门生意基于一种观念,即未来在一定程度上是可知的,即使它有很大一部分并不可知。所以我们必须找寻预兆。正如本刊在1868年3月28日的社论中所警告的那样,不应指望今天“衣冠不整”或“初出茅庐”的借款方明天会还债。
Speculations about the future are also often helpful in organising thoughts about the present. In this spirit, this special report finishes with some predictions tied to its main themes. Some are extensions of current trends. Others are more speculative—concerning, say, a trend that may reverse or one that could go in a surprising direction.
对未来的推测通常也有助于整理对当下的思考。本着这种精神,本专题报道将以提出一些与其主题有关的预测作结。一些预测是当前趋势的延伸。另一些带有更多猜想的成分,比如有关某种趋势可能会逆转,或朝着令人意想不到的方向发展。
The first prediction is the least bold. By 2030 the sorting of the industry into a small club of giant asset managers and a bigger one of niche managers will be largely complete. Already in 2020, index-tracking funds and ETFs account for a majority of pooled investment funds in America. In a decade’s time they may make up the bulk of all stockholdings. Investors will mix beta, the market risk, with exposures picked from a menu of smaller specialists which, to survive the industry’s upheaval, must have a truly distinctive approach. These remaining funds might be thematic, based around increased longevity, say, or climate change. Or they could have a particular investment philosophy. Such specialist funds will be global or regional in scope.
第一个预测是最保守的。到2030年,资产管理行业将基本完成一轮分化——由行业巨头组成的小俱乐部和利基者组成的大俱乐部。在2020年,指数追踪基金和交易所买卖基金(ETF)已经是美国汇集投资基金的大头。十年后它们可能占到所有持股的大部分。投资者将在使用贝塔值这一市场风险指数的同时,再从一批规模较小的专门化投资中挑选风险敞口。这些专门化投资必须真正独树一帜才扛得住行业动荡。存活下来的可能是围绕诸如老龄化和气候变化的主题性投资。或者它们可能有特定的投资理念。这类专门基金的投资范围可能会是全球的,也可能是区域的。
A second prediction is that competition in asset management will revolve around products designed for particular needs. The present-day industry is a creature of the baby-boom era. Many boomers have built up assets in workplace schemes in which benefits depend on the size of a pension pot at retirement. Their needs are changing. A challenge to which the industry has not responded well is to find ways for people to draw on their retirement savings without running out of money too quickly, says Mr Taraporevala, of State Street Global Advisors. Quite so.
第二个预测是资产管理领域里的竞争将围绕为特定需求设计的产品展开。今天的行业现状是婴儿潮时代的产物。许多婴儿潮一代人在职场退休金计划中积累资产,其支付的福利取决于退休时养老金账户里有多少钱。他们的需求在变化。道富环球投资管理(State Street Global Advisors)的塔拉波瓦拉(Taraporevala)说,该行业尚未很好地应对一个挑战——如何让人们能够取用养老储蓄而又不会很快把钱花光。此言不虚。
Another challenge is to tailor products to millennials. Their share of wealth is still small, but it will grow. And their preferences are different. For baby-boomers a mutual fund was the only way to invest in equities at a reasonable cost. The technology now exists to buy and sell individual shares at virtually no cost. Low-fee “robo-advisers” mechanically allocate savings to a mix of bond and equity index funds according to preset rules. These advances appeal to a generation reared on smartphones. Millennials have less need of the money doctors who tended to the boomers.
另一个挑战是为千禧一代量身定制产品。这一代人目前在整体财富中占比仍然很小,但会扩大。而他们的偏好有所不同。对于婴儿潮一代来说,共同基金是以合理成本投资股票的唯一方式。而如今存在的技术让人们实际上可以分文不花地买卖单只股票。收费低廉的“机器人顾问”根据预设规则将储蓄机械地分配到债券和股票指数基金的组合中。这些技术进步吸引了在智能手机上成长起来的一代人。千禧一代不那么需要面向婴儿潮一代的财务医生。
A third forecast is that ESG will not be the saviour of active asset management. By 2030 it will be too mainstream to be a source of differentiation. There is likely to be a surfeit of choices for investors who want even the most exacting kinds of ESG. Despite the increased salience of corporate governance, the big passive funds may ultimately choose not to use their vast voting power to influence firms—a fourth prediction. Securities-market regulators will continue to push them to vote their shares, to fulfil their fiduciary duty to investors. But antitrust agencies will increasingly fret about the latent ability of big funds to soften competition among firms they indirectly own. Trustbusting is moving back to the “big is bad” assumption that governed it before the 1980s. It may prove costly and legally messy for funds to exercise their voting power in a way that satisfies all watchdogs.
第三个预测是,环境、社会和企业治理(ESG)不会成为主动资产管理的救星。到2030年它将变得过于主流而不再是一种差异性来源。即便是想要最严格的ESG的投资者都可能选择太多。尽管公司治理的重要性日益突显,但大型被动基金最终可能选择不使用其庞大的投票权来影响企业——这是第四个预测。证券市场的监管机构会继续推动它们使用股东投票权,以履行对投资者的信托义务。但反垄断部门会越来越担心大型基金有隐藏的力量来削弱它们间接拥有的公司间的竞争。反垄断行动正在回到1980年代之前主导它的“大即是坏”的假设上。基金若要以一种让所有监管方满意的方式行使其投票权,成本可能很高,法律上也十分麻烦。
Some popular predictions about private markets—that they will be “democratised”, and fees will come under pressure—will turn out to be wrong (or premature). Private-equity fees do look out of whack and big pension-fund managers are more inclined to haggle over costs. Returns on private equity are likely to disappoint. Yet fees for public equity came down because there was a cheaper option: buy the index. Private-equity stakes are not as tradable as listed shares, so there is no index. So fees will stay high.
对私募市场的一些流行预测——认为它们会被“民主化”而收费水平将承压——将被证明是错误的(或者为时过早)。私募股权基金的收费看起来确实失常,大型养老基金经理更倾向于对此讨价还价。私募股权的收益很可能令人失望。但是,公开上市股票的费用之所以下降是因为存在一种更便宜的选择:购买指数基金。私募股权不像上市股票那样可交易,因而不存在指数这种东西。所以费用降不下来。
Other popular predictions will prove correct. Private debt will grow in importance. America will slowly lose its lead in venture capital. The big brand-name VCs of Silicon Valley will retain their lustre, thanks to their record of creating billionaire founders. But more new champions will emerge elsewhere.
其他常见的预测会被证明是正确的。私募债务会变得越来越重要。美国将逐渐失去它在风险资本里的领头羊地位。硅谷的大牌风投公司有创造亿万富翁创始人的记录,所以会保有其魅力。但更多新冠军会在其他地方崛起。
Finally, there is China, where the uncertainty is perhaps greatest. Sceptics point to China’s record of allowing foreigners to profit only as long as it takes Chinese firms to copy and supplant them. Asset management is different. Unlike with makers of breakfast cereals, it is hard for consumers to judge the merits of an asset manager. It is equally hard for copycat firms to find out what works and what doesn’t.
最后要说说中国,那里的不确定性可能是最大的。怀疑论者指出,中国允许外国人赚钱从来都是以能让中国公司复制并取代它们为条件的。资产管理不一样。和早餐麦片制造商不同,消费者很难判断资产管理公司的优劣。同样地,山寨公司也很难弄明白什么能奏效,什么行不通。
That is not the only reason the foreign money doctors will stick around in China. Rich-world banks are increasingly contained by national borders. Businesses are less inclined to set up abroad. Offshoring is being replaced by onshoring. Almost by default, capital markets will become the main avenue for diversifying risk by geography. If China’s leadership wants Shanghai to be a global financial centre and the yuan to be an international currency, it needs to keep channels open. Foreign asset managers will be a crucial conduit.
这不是外国的财务医生会留在中国的唯一原因。富裕国家的银行正越来越多地被国界束缚。企业如今不那么愿意在国外设立公司了。离岸外包正被近岸外包取代。资本市场将近乎自动变成通过地理分布来分散风险的主要途径。如果中国的领导层希望上海成为全球金融中心、人民币成为国际货币,就需要保持金融管道的开放畅通。外国资产管理公司将成为至关重要的渠道。
In the quiet revolution of asset management, one thing will remain constant. Philip Rose’s investment trust was composed of exotic foreign bonds traded in London; his idea inspired Robert Fleming, who mostly invested in America. From the start, asset management has been global. Why change that now?
在资产管理行业静悄悄发生的革命中,有一件事将保持不变。菲利普·罗斯(Philip Rose)的投资信托基金由在伦敦交易的稀奇古怪的外国债券组成;他的想法启发了罗伯特·弗莱明,后者主要在美国投资。从一开始,资产管理就是全球性的。为什么现在要改变这一点?

三、翻译园地-论文翻译

论文摘要翻译有哪些注意事项?
1.专业术语的选择
在学术文献的翻译中,选择合适的专业术语是保证翻译准确性的前提。在选择相关词语和表达方式时,要充分考虑这个表达方式在专业范围内的适用性,也要考虑当下的语境。在不同的情况下,同一个单词可能会有不同的含义,应该选择哪一个取决于情况。
2.在长句拆译的摘要中,有时需要描述事物或现象的因果关系,常用复合长句。所以在翻译过程中,要分析句子的逻辑结构,找出整句的中心思想,在准确理解的基础上进行分译。