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一、经济学人杂志双语文章摘要

美国的疫情可能会在2021年底前消退。科技浪潮将持续到拜登的总统任期之后。但在应对这两大挑战时,他应该遵循同一条原则:政府切不可抵制经济变革,而应帮助人们调整适应它。美国目前的经济表现之所以优于欧洲,一个原因是相比于保留过剩的工作岗位,美国的经济刺激计划更着力于贴补家庭收入。同样地,在面对科技变革时,能为新时代重建社会安全网并改写社会契约的政府将比那些试图保留过时的资本主义和政府模式的政府做得更好。

二、经济学人杂志双语文章中英对照翻译

The economy Biden inherits 拜登接手的经济

2020.11


America’s new president
美国新任总统
The incoming administration faces two extraordinary economic challenges
新一届政府面临两大非同寻常的经济挑战

经济学人双语杂志

AMERICA’S VOTERS did not elect Joe Biden because they thought he would be the best steward of the economy. The economy may well define his presidency nonetheless. Mr Biden will take office in January amid a crisis brought about by the pandemic, which is capable of causing immensely more economic harm before vaccination is widespread. He will also inherit a business landscape in the throes of a once-in-a-generation shift, as technology becomes more embedded in everyday life and in more industries—a shift that has been simultaneously hastened and overshadowed by the disease. Whether Mr Biden succeeds or fails depends on how he manages these twin sources of change.
拜登当选总统并不是因为选民认为他会是美国经济最好的大管家。但经济还是很有可能决定他总统任期的成败。明年1月,拜登将在新冠疫情引发的危机中走马上任。在广泛接种疫苗之前,这场疫情造成的经济危害还可能极大增长。随着科技日益嵌入日常生活和更多行业,拜登还将接手一个二三十年一遇的艰难商业变局——新冠肺炎加速了这一变局,同时也给它蒙上了阴影。拜登执政的成败取决于他如何应对这两大变化源头。
The good news is that GDP has rebounded impressively from its collapse in the spring. The unemployment rate has dropped much faster than most forecasters expected, from 14.7% in April to 6.9% in October. Were private-sector employment to keep growing at the pace of September and October it would return to its pre-pandemic level in less than a year. On most forecasts America’s economy will shrink by less than any other big rich country’s in 2020—the euro zone will take almost twice the hit, for example. So far there is little sign of the economic scarring that was feared at the onset of the crisis.
好消息是GDP已经从今年春季的暴跌中强劲反弹。失业率从4月的14.7%降至10月的6.9%,降速大大超出多数预测者的预期。如果私营部门的就业继续保持9月和10月的增速,不到一年就能回到疫情前的水平。根据大多数预测,2020年美国经济的萎缩幅度将小于所有其他富裕大国——比如,欧元区遭受的冲击差不多会是美国的两倍。到目前为止,没什么迹象显示会出现疫情之初人们所担心的那种经济创伤。
Unfortunately this rebound is threatened by the winter wave of the virus. The logistics of rolling out a vaccine are daunting and at first only emergency workers and the most vulnerable will receive it. The spread of the disease will worsen before a mass inoculation can take place. Already more Americans are in hospital with covid-19 than at the peak of the outbreak in the spring, though many fewer are dying. Some parts of the country could soon face more restrictions and lockdowns. Others might experiment with letting the virus rip—an approach which could still bring about a sharp drop in consumer spending if people choose to stay at home in order to stay safe.
不幸的是,经济反弹面临冬季又一波疫情的威胁。分发疫苗的组织工作非常艰巨,一开始只会供应给急救人员和最易感染的人群。而在能大规模接种之前,病毒的传播还会加剧。目前美国住院治疗的新冠患者已经超过了春季疫情爆发高峰期的人数,尽管死亡人数少了很多。美国部分地区可能很快会面临更严格的限制和封锁。其他地区或许会尝试对疫情不加管控,但这种策略仍可能导致消费支出骤降,如果人们为安全起见而选择闭门不出的话。
If the virus again puts the economy to the sword, it might not benefit from the life support it got in March in the form of lavish unemployment insurance and emergency loans for small businesses. Republicans in the Senate will probably support a limited second round of fiscal stimulus, but are in no mood for another blowout. A debate is raging about whether the Federal Reserve should extend its emergency lending into the new year. Job cuts by state and local governments, whose budgets have been hit by the pandemic, are already weighing down the labour market. They need a bail-out that Republicans do not want to give. Mr Biden’s first challenge will be to persuade Congress to keep the purse strings loose until the vaccine has brought about a full reopening.
美国在3月推出了慷慨的失业保险和小企业紧急贷款,向经济输血。如果病毒再次把经济推向绝境,它可能不会再得到这样的救援。参议院的共和党人可能会支持有限的第二轮财政刺激计划,但无意再像第一轮那样出手阔绰。一场关于美联储是否应该将紧急贷款延长到明年的辩论正在激烈进行中。因为预算受到疫情的严重影响,各州和地方政府纷纷裁员,这已经让劳动力市场不堪重负。它们需要紧急财政援助,而共和党人却不想提供。拜登面临的第一个挑战将是说服国会继续松开钱袋子,直到疫苗让经济全面重启。 
At the same time the new president will need to grapple with the post-vaccine economy, which will look different from the one that entered the pandemic. The crisis has hastened the digitisation that was already poised to define business and investing in the 2020s. That trend will not fully reverse, even after the pandemic has subsided. Investors are still struggling to make sense of an economy in which intangible capital replaces the bricks-and-mortar kind, and in which network effects make incumbents more dominant and profits more enduring.
与此同时,拜登将需要设法应对后疫苗时代的经济,它的面貌将不同于疫情前的经济。数字化以其势头看原本就会成为2020年代的商业和投资活动的决定性力量,新冠危机加快了它的进程。即使疫情消退,这一趋势也不会完全逆转。投资者仍在努力理解这样一种经济形态:无形资本取代实体资产;网络效应让现有企业更具主导优势、利润更持久。
As technology permeates business, the nature of investment is changing. After the global financial crisis of 2007-09, the share of private non-residential investment flowing to intellectual property hit 30%. Soon it may breach the 40% threshold. In this world, Walmart must become an e-commerce giant, Ford must compete with Tesla to make electric cars, and computers must allocate capital. Even McDonald’s has been working on its digital strategy. The tech revolution will change the economy as much as the globalisation wave that defined Bill Clinton’s presidency in the 1990s. As it reshapes the labour market—blue- and white-collar jobs alike—it could tear at the social fabric, much as the automation of manufacturing jobs did.
随着科技渗透到商业领域,投资的特点正在变化。2007至2009年的全球金融危机之后,高达30%的私人非住宅投资流向了知识产权,很快可能还会突破40%的临界值。在这样一个世界里,沃尔玛必须成为电子商务巨头,福特必须与特斯拉竞争生产电动汽车,计算机必须配置资本。就连麦当劳也一直忙着制订数字战略。这场科技革命给经济带来的改变将不亚于上世纪90年代成为克林顿执政期关键特征的全球化浪潮的影响。在重塑包括蓝领和白领在内的劳动力市场的同时,它还可能撕裂社会结构,就像当年的制造业工作自动化那样。
America’s epidemic could be fading by the end of 2021. The tech surge will outlive Mr Biden’s presidency. Yet the same principle should guide him on both: that government must not resist economic change, but should instead help people adapt to it. One reason America’s economy is outperforming Europe’s is that its stimulus has done more to prop up household incomes than it has to preserve redundant jobs. Similarly, governments that respond to technological change by remaking safety-nets and rewriting social contracts for the new era will do better than those which seek to preserve obsolete models of capitalism and government.
美国的疫情可能会在2021年底前消退。科技浪潮将持续到拜登的总统任期之后。但在应对这两大挑战时,他应该遵循同一条原则:政府切不可抵制经济变革,而应帮助人们调整适应它。美国目前的经济表现之所以优于欧洲,一个原因是相比于保留过剩的工作岗位,美国的经济刺激计划更着力于贴补家庭收入。同样地,在面对科技变革时,能为新时代重建社会安全网并改写社会契约的政府将比那些试图保留过时的资本主义和政府模式的政府做得更好。
There are thus reasons to worry that Mr Biden’s platform has a protectionist streak, a nostalgia for manufacturing jobs and an impulse to load firms with worthy social goals. One of his new-economy policies already looks like a flop: he wants to extend nationwide the regulations for gig-economy work that California voters rejected earlier this month. To succeed, Mr Biden will need to show competent crisis management. But he also needs to recognise the deeper changes taking place in the economy, and to help Americans profit from them. That is the way to raise living standards—and, as it happens, to succeed as president.
因此,我们有理由担心拜登的执政纲领中存在一抹贸易保护主义色彩、对制造业岗位的怀旧之情,以及让企业背负崇高社会目标的冲动。他其中一项新经济政策看起来已经失败了:他希望在全国推广的对零工经济的监管在本月稍早时已经被加州选民否决。要获得成功,拜登需要展现出危机处理能力,但他也需要认识到经济正在发生更深层次的变化,并帮助美国人民从中得益。这是提高生活水平的途径,也恰恰是他在总统任期上取得成功的途径。