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一、经济学人杂志双语文章摘要

中国经济在第三季度同比增长4.9%,仅略低于疫情前的增速。在其他国家普遍陷入经济衰退,而且还要应付第二波疫情之际,中国却已差不多完成了V型反弹。分析起来,其成功不难解释。中国做对了至关重要的一点。它基本扑灭了病毒传染,使得人们在无需多少限制的情况下恢复活动。

二、经济学人杂志双语文章中英对照翻译

A big splash 大水花
In a world mired in recession, China manages a v-shaped recovery

全球深陷衰退之时,中国实现V型复苏

A big splash 大水花


ONE SCENE more than any other from China’s coronavirus recovery has caught the world’s attention: a giant pool party in August in Wuhan, the city where the pandemic began. Nearly four months after their 11-week lockdown, revellers were crammed together in waist-high water, jumping and shouting in exhilaration as a DJ spun bass-heavy beats. The video went viral. It was a moment of pure release and a sign of how China is far ahead of most other countries in returning to normality (of a sort). Economic data are rarely as exciting as pool parties, but China’s latest GDP figures, released on October 19th, were, roughly speaking, the statistical equivalent of Wuhan’s aquatic festivities.
最能体现中国从新冠疫情中复苏的一幕曾引发全球关注:最早爆发疫情的武汉在8月举办了一场大型泳池派对。持续11周的封城过去近四个月后,狂欢的人群挤在水深及腰的泳池中,随着DJ播放的重低音节拍兴奋地蹦跳欢呼。这段视频片段在网上疯传。那是人们完全释放的一刻,也显示出中国在恢复(某种程度的)常态上远远领先其他大多数国家。经济数据很少像泳池派对那样让人兴奋,但粗略地讲,中国在10月19日发布的最新GDP数据可与武汉这场水上庆祝相比拟。
Officials reported that the economy expanded by 4.9% in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, just shy of its pre-pandemic pace. Whereas most other countries are mired in recession and grappling with a new wave of covid-19 cases, China has just about completed the upward leg of a V-shaped rebound. Analytically, its success is easy to explain. China got one crucial thing right. By almost stamping out the virus it was able to allow activity to resume with few restrictions. Schools are fully open, factories are humming and restaurants are buzzing. China is also lucky in one crucial way. It is better insulated from weak global demand than smaller peers such as New Zealand that have done a good job of containing the pandemic, too. Until vaccines are rolled out, others will struggle to match China’s feat.
官员们称,中国经济在第三季度同比增长4.9%,仅略低于疫情前的增速。在其他国家普遍陷入经济衰退,而且还要应付第二波疫情之际,中国却已差不多完成了V型反弹。分析起来,其成功不难解释。中国做对了至关重要的一点。它基本扑灭了病毒传染,使得人们在无需多少限制的情况下恢复活动。学校全面复课,工厂轰鸣复工,餐馆忙碌迎客。中国在另一个关键方面也算幸运。相比新西兰这类同样成功遏制了疫情的小国,中国受全球需求疲软的影响相对较小。在疫苗推出前,中国的复苏壮举将是其他国家难以企及的。
Yet China’s headline resilience has masked an unbalanced recovery. Back in February, when the government began cautiously to relax its lockdown, it focused on reopening factories and launching infrastructure projects. It correctly reasoned that maintaining strict health protocols in factories and on construction sites, which can be managed as semi-closed environments, would be easier than in shopping malls or schools. On top of that, China’s meagre provisions for unemployment insurance meant that the millions of people who found themselves out of work had to cut back on spending. Early in its recovery, China’s economy was thus fuelled by factory production and investment. Capital formation—the category in GDP accounting that encompasses these endeavours—contributed five percentage points to growth in the second quarter, whereas consumption subtracted more than two percentage points. Back then that left China with a 3.2% year-on-year growth rate.
不过,中国这引人瞩目的反弹掩盖了复苏的不平衡。2月政府开始小心翼翼地解封,重点是工厂复工及启动基础设施项目。这样的考虑合情合理:在工厂和建筑工地这样可按半封闭环境管理的场所保持严格的卫生防疫措施要比在购物中心或学校里更容易。而且,中国的失业保险保障程度低,意味着千百万失业人员只能被迫减少开支。因此,在复苏的初期,中国经济主要是靠工厂生产和投资带动的。在第二季度,资本形成(GDP核算中包含上述活动的部分)为中国经济增长贡献了五个百分点,而消费将其拉低了超过两个百分点。这使得当时的同比增速为3.2%。
The latest data reflect a slightly more balanced recovery (see chart). The contribution to third-quarter growth from capital formation fell to less than three percentage points, in line with the pre-pandemic norm, as infrastructure spending tailed off. Consumption added nearly two percentage points, which was below its pre-pandemic heights but a big improvement—easily noticeable in the crowds that have returned to tourist sites, restaurants and shops. Trade was the cream on top. China’s share of global merchandise exports has risen to a record high during the pandemic. It received a boost by being the first manufacturing power to resume operations, in addition to being the world’s biggest producer of protective equipment, from masks to surgical gowns.
从最新数据看,复苏变得稍微平衡了一些(见图表)。随着基建支出逐步减少,资本形成对第三季度增长的贡献回落至不到三个百分点,与疫情前常规水平相当。消费则助力经济增长近两个百分点,虽然仍低于疫情前的高位,但已大幅改善——这一点从旅游景点、餐馆和商店重新变得人头攒动也很容易看出来。贸易也锦上添花。疫情期间,中国在全球商品出口的占比升至历史新高。中国不仅是率先复工复产的制造业大国,也是口罩、手术服等防护装备的全球最大生产商,这都提振了出口。 
Whenever Chinese data look so rosy, it is natural to ask whether they are believable. In this case a range of non-GDP indicators, including other countries’ exports to China, lend credence to the picture of a robust rebound. The bigger worry is whether the recovery has been at the expense of efforts to rein in debt. The initial sharp economic slowdown followed by a government-directed boom in bank lending will push China’s debt-to-GDP ratio to about 275% this year, up by 25 percentage points. It will be the biggest annual increase since 2009 during the global financial crisis.
每当中国发布如此亮眼的数据,人们自然会质疑它们是否可信。这次的强劲反弹有其他国家的对华出口数据等一系列GDP以外的指标来印证。更大的忧虑是,眼前的复苏会不会是牺牲之前减债的努力换来的。在疫情之初经济急剧放缓后,政府主导了一轮银行放贷激增,这将使中国今年的债务占GDP之比达到275%左右,上升25个百分点。这将是自2009年全球金融危机以来的最大年度增幅。
Yet China is far from alone. Governments around the world have run up huge tabs to lessen the economic fallout from the pandemic. With its growth back on track, China has a chance to tighten the spigots again. S&P, a credit-rating agency, notes that the country’s real lending rates (ie, adjusted for inflation) have recently climbed to a five-year high, a dampener on investment. If successful, China will confine irrational exuberance to pools.
但这样做的绝非中国一家。世界各地的政府都大举借债来减轻疫情对经济的影响。随着经济增长重回正轨,中国有机会再次收紧水龙头。评级机构标准普尔指出,中国的实际借贷利率(经通胀调整后的利率)最近已升至五年来的最高位,对投资造成抑制。如果成功,中国将把非理性狂热限制在泳池里。