Wall Street’s money 华尔街的钱

2020.9


Who are America’s financial elite backing in 2020?
美国的金融精英在2020年支持谁?

 

经济学人


THE TIES between Wall Street financiers and politicians are the subject of a lot of scrutiny. Not for nothing is Goldman Sachs, a bank, sometimes nicknamed “Government Sachs”. But how important are the moneybags in New York to political success in Washington, DC? Quantifying the relationship can be done using the extensive data collected about campaign donations. It’s not an uplifting exercise.
华尔街金融家和政客之间的关系向来备受审视。高盛有时被昵称为“高府”(Government Sachs)也不无原因。但是,纽约的金主们对于在华府获得政治成功到底有多重要?可以使用有关竞选捐赠的大量数据来量化这一关系,虽说做这件事不是多么让人振奋。
The first task is to decide who counts as Wall Street’s elite. As well as encompassing the bosses of banks like JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, they also include the heads of some hedge funds, private-equity shops, asset managers and wealth-management firms in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. In addition are billionaire New Yorkers on the Forbes list, who have earned their wealth via some form of finance, such as Michael Bloomberg of the eponymous financial-information firm. Totted up this way, the financiers amount to 68 people. Of these, 52 have given money to political campaigns in at least one of the two most recent general-election cycles (2015-16 and 2019-20). Together they are worth $310bn and manage firms with assets of over $32trn.
第一步是要确定哪些人算是华尔街精英。除了摩根大通和摩根士丹利等银行的老板,还有纽约、新泽西州和康涅狄格州的一些对冲基金、私募股权公司、资产管理公司和财富管理公司的一把手。此外还有在某些金融相关领域积聚财富而登上《福布斯》榜单的纽约亿万富翁,例如金融资讯公司彭博的老板迈克尔•布隆伯格。这样计算的话,入选的金融家有68人,其中,52人至少在最近两个大选周期(2015至2016年,以及2019至2020年)之一向竞选活动捐过款。这些华尔街精英的身家总共达3100亿美元,他们管理的企业拥有超过32万亿美元的资产。
Estimates of their political contributions are drawn from campaign-finance data in the Federal Election Commisson, a regulator. The Economist has attempted to contact larger donors to verify them. Not all have responded. Most of these Wall Street donors hedge their bets; they give to campaigns from both parties. But the biggest contributors have, in the past, tended to be one-party loyalists (see chart). Eight of the 52—including Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management, an investment-management firm; Robert Mercer, then co-CEO of Renaissance Technologies, a hedge fund; and Paul Singer of Elliott Management, an activist-investment firm—gave exclusively to Republican campaigns in the 2016 election cycle. Nine—including Mr Mercer’s then-colleague Jim Simons, who founded Renaissance, George Soros, a hedge-fund veteran, and David Elliot Shaw of D.E. Shaw, another hedge fund, gave only to candidates of the Democratic Party.
对于这些人的政治捐款的估算来自监管机构美国联邦选举委员会(Federal Election Commisson)的竞选筹款数据。本刊曾尝试联系其中较大的捐款人核实,但不是全部都有回复。这些华尔街金主大多两面下注,对两党的竞选活动都有捐款。但最大的捐款者过去往往都忠实地支持一个党(见图表)。52人中有八人在2016年大选期间只捐款给共和党的竞选活动,包括投资管理公司AQR资本管理(AQR Capital Management)的克里夫•阿斯尼斯(Cliff Asness)、 对冲基金文艺复兴科技(Renaissance Technologies)的联席首席执行官罗伯特•默瑟(Robert Mercer)、维权投资公司埃利奥特管理公司(Elliott Management)的保罗•辛格(Paul Singer)。有九人只给民主党参选人捐款,包括默瑟的前同事、文艺复兴科技的创始人吉姆•西蒙斯(Jim Simons)、对冲基金元老索罗斯和另一家对冲基金德劭(D.E. Shaw)的大卫•艾略特•肖(David Elliot Shaw)。 
In the intervening years, the pro-Republicans have appeared to grow less partisan. Just three of them have remained Republican-only, including Mr Singer and Mr Mercer. Total donations went mostly to Republicans in 2016, but are now evenly split. 在之后的几年里,亲共和党的金主们的党派倾向似乎有所减少。他们当中坚持只支持共和党的只有三人,包括辛格和默瑟。在2016年,华尔街的捐款大部分流向了共和党,现在则是两党均分。
Political leanings aside, much else has shifted since the last election. Firstly, the sums given have fallen. In 2016 the financiers provided $130m to political campaigns, or 1.4% of the total raised. So far this cycle, their share is just 0.5%. Strikingly, many appear to be sitting 2020 out; around a fifth of those who gave meaningfully in the last election have given nothing in 2020. This decrease is largely the result of a drop in contributions to the presidential campaign, particularly that of Donald Trump. Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, a private-equity firm, who has given more than $18m this year, compared with around $5m last time, is the only titan who has increased his share to the president. Mr Mercer gave more than $15.7m to Trump-affiliated committees in 2016. This time he has given less than $400,000.
撇开政治倾向不谈,自上次大选以来许多事情都变了。首先是捐款额减少了。2016年,金融家为政治竞选活动提供了1.3亿美元,占募资总额的1.4%。而这轮大选到目前为止,他们的捐款只占0.5%。令人惊讶的是,许多人似乎不再参与2020年大选捐款了,在上届大选中大笔捐钱的金融家中约有五分之一的人在2020年还分毫未捐。捐款减少主要是对总统竞选活动(特别是对特朗普)捐款减少的结果。私募股权公司黑石集团(Blackstone)的苏世民(Stephen Schwarzman)是唯一提高了对特朗普捐款的巨头,今年捐款超过1800万美元,而上次大选时约为500万美元。默瑟在2016年向特朗普的竞选委员会捐款超过1570万美元,这一次他的捐款不到40万美元。
It is a similar story with Joe Biden, the Democratic challenger. His two biggest Wall Street supporters are Mr Soros and Mr Shaw, both of whom have given around $500,000 each—less than they had given to Hillary Clinton at this point in her race against Mr Trump in 2016.
民主党总统候选人拜登的遭遇也差不多。他最大的两位华尔街金主索罗斯和肖到目前各捐给他约50万美元,少于他们在2016年的这个时间点已经捐给特朗普的对手希拉里的金额。
The congressional races are attracting more attention. The Wall Street group has given over $8m to Senate races and $19m to House races, triple the total contributed to congressional races at this point in 2016. The “Senate Majority PAC” (SMP) is particularly popular with Democratic donors. Mr Shaw has given more to Senate campaigns than he has to Mr Biden. Mr Simons has given $3.5m to the SMP.
金主们现在更关注国会议员竞选。这些华尔街精英对参议院竞选活动捐款超过800万美元,对众议院竞选捐款1900万美元,是2016年同一时期对国会竞选捐款总额的三倍。民主党的金主尤其支持参议院多数党政治行动委员会(Senate Majority PAC,以下简称SMP)。肖对参议院竞选活动的捐款超过了对拜登的捐款。西蒙斯已向SMP捐款350万美元。
The Senate race is of keen interest because it is considered particularly tight. But the lowly sums in the presidential battle may reflect a dispiriting reality—that neither Mr Trump nor Mr Biden generates much enthusiasm. At least those worried that Wall Street has Washington in its pocket can console themselves that so far the financiers are not providing the sort of sums that can help define the race.
金主们之所以对参议院竞选兴趣浓厚,是因为这一块的选情看起来特别焦灼。而总统争夺战收到的捐款少可能反映出一个令人沮丧的现实——特朗普和拜登都没有激发多少热情。但至少,那些担心华尔街操控华盛顿的人可以聊以自慰——到目前为止,金融家们掏出的钱还没到能影响竞选结果的份上。